Citibank expects the USD to rally versus G10 inward 2014 - pretty much across the board.
"GBP in addition to NZD are the alone currencies nosotros await to concord their ain versus USD. Weakest currencies are probable to live JPY, AUD, CAD in addition to CHF. The surprise inward 2014 FX markets volition probable live how good opportunity appetite survives tapering given the depression volatility across property markets," Citi projects.
"Carry is attractive nether these conditions. The winning currencies volition live the highest send amongst the lowest position down specific risk, the losers, currencies amongst depression yields in addition to apartment yield curves," Citi adds.
In draw of piece of occupation amongst this view, Citi picks the next v FX trades for 2014:
1. Relative value inward majors – Long GBP, USD vs. Short JPY, CHF
60% Buy USDJPY amongst 102.90 stop
40% Buy GBPCHF amongst 1.4640 stop
2. Further forcefulness inward USDJPY
Buy 6mth USDJPY 1x2x1 wing (strikes 106/109/112, kicking the bucket Jul 10) at 0.50% of USD
3. AUDNZD to accept out parity
buy 9mth AUDNZD 1.00 European digital (spot ref 1.0760, kicking the bucket 10/10/14) at 12% of AUD Policy departure is probable to produce AUDNZD into a novel historic depression make or then parity.
4. CAD undermined past times disinflation in addition to competitiveness
Sell CADMXN at 12.0840, targeting 11.2610 amongst a stop/loss 12.551
5. Long NOK on valuation grounds
Buy EURNOK 7.70 i comport on (spot ref. 8.43, kicking the bucket xix December 2014) at 19.75% of EUR.